Category: football betting

Don’t Be a Square: 10 Tips for Betting on Football

Slim underdogs regularly win outright.

“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”

However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

7. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games.

So, how much are we gambling each football season?

“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”

Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.

Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs.

3.

So, how much should you bet a game?

So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”

Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”

But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”

While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”

9. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved.

8. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump.

“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas.

Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor.

10. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”

Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.

“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”

“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says.

Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.

6. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says.

Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.

But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.

Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has.

2. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

4. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”

“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline.

Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”

And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says.

“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”

And where does all that money go?

“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,’” Konik says. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record.

1. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”

Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”

5. “Teams play inspired ball at home. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”

. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game

Football Betting To Win by Woz Salmon

When it comes to gambling on the outcome of sporting events, every well-balanced person will readily acknowledge that it is not worth risking all their funds on one single bet, as they could very easily end up with no funds at all. To be able to bet requires two parties: the party placing the bet and the party accepting the bet.

For example, you gamble not-so-obviously (and do not bet) whenever you lay out money in the simple hope of retaining your wealth (such as buying a house or putting your savings into a higher paying deposit account) and rather more obviously when you attempt to increase your wealth by investing in shares (again not a bet) or by participating in sports betting. In view of this, I am now going to make what I consider to be the single most important statement in respect to “Betting to Win”:

It seems that a majority of bettors would be happy to achieve a small overall return on their bets by the end of a sporting season, generally because the alternative is to sail too close to the wind too often and be in constant danger of losing their entire bank. Both the acceptance of the need for a worthwhile Betting Strategy and the will to apply it properly must emanate from within you. The main point here is that a bet is just one particular form of gambling, and it’s only the degree of risk that varies from one gamble to another.

. There is a very similar rule applicable to betting: before you gamble, the three most important considerations should be Selection, Selection and Selection!

To achieve even a modest return on your bets, you need to develop a worthwhile Betting Strategy for yourself.

Each type of gamble has its own unwritten rules attached, all of which need to be both understood and followed if the specific gambling objective is to be achieved. In respect to the latter, remember that the three prime considerations to ensure a first-class investment are Location, Location and Location. You can’t buy a good Betting Strategy, although it may well be true that the individual components themselves can be purchased.

A worthwhile Betting Strategy incorporates both a reliable Selection System and a sound Staking Plan. This means that if location fails on any single point, you have not found a “star” property. As you can see, therefore, all the foregoing are forms of gambling, no matter that some people may attempt to draw dividing lines between them to make their preferred form of gambling more socially acceptable.

So that you can emerge as a winner, I strongly recommend that you should approach football betting just as seriously as you would when investing in shares or a house purchase.

All too often, bets are placed on “gut feel”, and frequently for wildly varying stakes (as opposed to “fixed” (or “level”) stakes, without proper assessment of the chances of winning, or without adequate consideration as to how a loss will affect the bettor’s bank.

Now, before we discuss “betting to win” in more detail, let’s begin by examining what a “bet” actually is. This principle applies whether or not the odds are in the bettor’s favour. A gamble need not involve another party, but a bet most certainly does.

The only way to guarantee a sure-fire win for yourself when gambling is if you could place a bet on a 100% certainty carrying a 100% commitment of being paid when you win. Consequently, at the end of each season, the majority of football bettors are poorer than when they started. Let’s face it though – that scenario will never arise in your entire lifetime!

As playing roulette will show you (because inherently it doesn’t allow the possibility of a Selection System to operate, since any given number or colour can come up at any time), very few Staking Plans on their own will consistently allow you to increase the amount you started with (meaning that you are simply in the hands of Lady Luck on the night). Note that not all gambles are bets. This is because the phrase “to take a gamble” generally means to risk something valuable in order to gain something of even greater value, and where the outcome is uncertain to some degree or other. Once you have acknowledged that satisfying such a need is vital to your betting success, you then have to work hard at (i) finding a good Selection System and (ii) deciding upon an appropriate Staking Plan that best suits your particular style and budget (and which won’t bankrupt you – because many have the potential to do so). A bet is a gamble based on the possibility of a particular event occurring or having occurred. The sad truth, though, is that most bettors fail to achieve even that modest aim, mainly because their betting is not based on sound principles